The 2008 U.S. Presidential Election by Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold

Singapore Rotary Club
July 16, 2008

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.  I'm delighted to be here today to talk about this year's U.S. presidential election.

I thought I’d begin with an overview of the presidential election process in the United States, which has had some unique twists and turns this year, and then talk about the influence of technology on elections in the U.S.

A Unique Election Cycle

The next U.S. president will take office on January 20th, a little more than six months from today.  This year's election cycle is unique for several reasons.

First, it began much earlier than in past presidential campaigns.  The 2008 election is the first U.S. presidential election since 1928 in which neither a sitting president nor vice president is running for election or re-election.  As a result, there was no clear-cut favorite candidate, so 19 different candidates jumped into the race, which led to one of the most unpredictable and wide-open campaigns in the past century.

Several of those many candidates who started the race were hoping to become “firsts” in the White House.  Barack Obama seeks to become the first African-American president.  Hillary Clinton, who has since suspended her campaign, hoped to become the first woman President.  Mike Huckabee would have been the first Baptist Minister elected to our highest office; Mitt Romney would have been the first Mormon President; and Bill Richardson would have been the first Hispanic President.

The other reason this season was unique was the timing of the primaries.  Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire hold the first presidential caucus and primary, in late January and early February of the election year, with the other states following in subsequent months and with most finishing in June.

By the first Tuesday in February of 2004, our last presidential election year, only 9 states had chosen nominees.  But this year, many states moved their primaries earlier in the year to give their citizens a more meaningful voice in the nominating process.  So by comparison, 32 states held their caucuses and primaries on or before February 5th this year.

One reason that the primary season was longer than usual this year was that Republicans and Democrats have different systems of allocating delegates.  For the Republicans, the candidate who wins most of the popular vote takes all of the delegates of that state; the Democrats allocate delegates proportionate to the percentage of the vote received.  Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were both very popular and received plenty of votes, so their race lasted a long time – until Obama finally reached the number of delegates needed to become the presumptive nominee.

Primary seasons are periods of vigorous debate and disagreement among the candidates.  This provides an opportunity for the electorate to find out what the candidates stand for, and to test the candidates on their views and their leadership.

The American media play a crucial role during this process, covering everything that happens on the campaign trail, analyzing the candidates' statements or actions, comparing their current positions to past positions and pointing out inconsistencies.

On April 22^nd, just prior to the Pennsylvania primary, Barack Obama made a remark about small-town Pennsylvania voters clinging to their guns and religion because they’re frustrated by their economic situation.  The backlash was immediate and intense and cartoonists had great fun.

When Hillary Clinton stated that she landed at an airport in Bosnia in 1996 under sniper fire - and news footage showed otherwise - many observers were quick to jump on her mistake.

Even candidates who have, or thought they had, a friendly relationship with the press are susceptible to attacks, as when John McCain was accused of an improper relationship with a lobbyist which, it turned out, was unsubstantiated and resulted in a lot of criticism of the newspaper that printed the article.

The point here is that candidates engage in vigorous debate, challenging each others' views and positions, sometimes even leveling personal attacks.  It’s part of the campaign process in the U.S., and this was an especially competitive primary season.

The Conventions

We reached the end of the primary season in early June and are currently in the period leading up to the general election.  All of the caucuses and primaries had one purpose: to elect the delegates who will represent the Republicans and Democrats at their respective conventions this summer.

The Democratic Convention will take place at the end of August in Denver, Colorado.  Since the beginning of June, when Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign and announced her support for Obama, he has been the presumptive Democratic nominee.  His "presumptive" status, however, is slightly different than McCain's.

The term “super delegate,” which you may have heard for the first time in recent months, refers to current or former Democratic party office holders or party officials who are also seated as delegates at the Democratic National Convention.  They comprise about one-fifth of all the Democratic delegates.  Super delegates can vote for whomever they wish and even if they’ve come out in favor of one candidate, they can change their minds.

Right now, enough super delegates have pledged their support to Obama to make him the presumptive nominee.  However, they have the right to change their mind up until the moment when they cast their ballot at the convention.

The Republican Convention will take place at the beginning of September in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota.  John McCain is the presumptive nominee, meaning that he gained enough delegates during the primary process to be chosen by the Republican delegates to the convention with a simple majority of their votes.

The Republicans also have unpledged delegates.  Most of them, however, are elected during the primary process just like the pledged delegates and are likely to be committed to a specific candidate.  It’s unlikely that they will change their minds like Democratic super delegates may do.

The party conventions involve much more than just the final selection of the party's nominee.  They provide an opportunity for the parties to rally together, announce their platforms, and celebrate their candidates in front of the world.  They are definitely media circuses, drawing enormous press coverage.  Conventions also allow rising stars within the parties to gain traction and support from other party members.

On several occasions, a dazzling speech at a convention has resulted in a later victory in a Presidential race.  The vice-presidential nominee is also officially announced at the convention.

The General Election

After the conventions, there are roughly nine weeks until Election Day.  During these nine weeks, the candidates will be on the road constantly, giving speeches, meeting voters, and elaborating on their platform positions.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 4, 2008.  At this point, the Electoral College comes into play.  In the U.S. Constitution, our Founding Fathers put the power of selecting the President in the hands of electors, not voters, as part of their plan to share power between the states and the national government.  Each state has a certain number of electors, based on its population and is equivalent to the number of Senators and Representatives the state has in Congress.

In all states except two, the winner takes all.  So, even if a candidate wins a state by the slimmest of margins in the popular vote – as George W. Bush did in Florida in the 2000 election – that candidate gains all of the electors for that state.

After the general election, the electors gather to cast their votes, which are then mailed to Washington D.C.  There, in a joint session of Congress, the votes are counted, and the candidate receiving the majority of electoral votes is declared to be the President-elect. On January 20, 2009, the inauguration of the next President of the United States will take place, and this long campaign will – finally – be over.

Technology in the Presidential Election

So what should we be watching for as we follow this year's exciting election?  Political analysts cite several groups of voters that are in flux and will provide the leading indicators of where the general election is heading.  These groups include working-class males; rural and small-town Americans; young, single, college-educated women; and Hispanics.

Most commentators agree that in addition to these categories, young people will play a crucial role in the outcome of the election.  The 2008 election will see more voters under the age of 25 than previous elections, due to a boom in birth rate in the United States that began in 1989.  This makes a large group of potential voters eligible to cast ballots for the first time in the 2008 elections, given that the voting age in the United States is eighteen.

An example of this phenomenon is a website called www.18in08.com, started by a group of young people who wanted to encourage their peers to participate in this crucial election year.  On the website, one can register to vote, compare presidential candidates and their views, listen to podcasts, vote in polls, and discuss politics with other young people interested in the election.

The candidates are doing everything they can to reach these voters, using techniques targeted to the online generation.  In 2004, campaigns learned that reaching younger volunteers and voters – through new technologies and organizations like the non-partisan group called “Rock the Vote” – is less expensive than connecting with older voters through more traditional methods like television advertising.

Data from Rock the Vote show that in 2004, voter turnout by voters under age 30 rose faster than among any other voting group. Senator Obama has attracted waves of newly registered young voters, and these younger voters could make the difference in the election results this year.

The past two U.S. election cycles, in 2004 and 2006, saw prominent advances in the use of the Internet and new technologies by campaigns.  Technology has become even more central to political campaigns in the past two years, as communication becomes faster and less structured.  More than 215 million Americans use the Internet, and campaigns are eager to capture potential voters’ attention online.

Many of the effects of new technology on the electoral process are positive.  Technology expands the geographical base of volunteers and donors who can participate in a campaign.  New technologies also make recruiting, mobilizing, and retaining campaign volunteers more efficient and cost-effective.

One negative impact of technology is the speed with which inaccurate information can spread, via blogs, e-mails, and news aggregators such as Digg.com.  Recognizing this trend, Barack Obama's campaign has just created a website where supporters can report and counter misinformation and e-mail their friends and neighbors with Obama campaign messages.  The website is called Fight the Smears.com.

Candidates have an online presence devoted to their campaigns on sites such as Facebook and MySpace.  Some observers question whether campaigns’ use of the Internet will make a significant difference in voting patterns this year.  But consider this fact: 86 percent of the 65 million U.S. residents who visit MySpace each month are at least 18 years old – the legal voting age in America.  Additional MySpace users will turn 18 before the general election in November.

Studies of how candidates are using their web sites shows that all the candidates highlight issues and biography, rather than the tactical focus, or comparison with other candidates, that is common in traditional media coverage.

Candidate web sites emphasize a two-way conversation with voters and offer the opportunity for users to become grassroots activists for the campaign.  They also allow candidates to respond to attacks without the filter of mainstream media and with more substance than is permitted by a 30-second television ad.

In addition, candidates use the sites to raise funds through the “contribute” button placed prominently on almost every page.  Senator Obama has raised more than $286 million since January 2007, almost half of which comes from people giving less than $200 each over the internet.

But money raised online doesn’t necessarily translate into victory in the polls; for example, John Kerry raised ten times as much money online as President Bush in 2004, but he still lost.

YouTube has played a crucial role in this year’s primary election process, hosting a series of debates early in the primary season.  The coming months may feature less planned YouTube moments, and any one of these moments may change the prospects of a candidate.  An off-the-cuff comment can become a voter-generated web video, available worldwide, in just moments.

The relative influence of television advertising continues to decline as voters tune out the flood of political ads, so campaigns are turning to new ways to reach specific groups of potential supporters who share similar interests and ideas.

Blogs are rapidly rising in readership, supplementing traditional news sources.  Recognizing the influence of this medium, campaigns are using blogs more and more, especially to reach younger voters.  For example, John McCain's daughter has her own blog where young people can see life on the campaign trail through her eyes: McCain Blogette.com.

Similarly, with an estimated 85 percent of American college students using the online social network Facebook, students active in campaigns or issues use the “political views” category in the site’s profile section to generate “buzz” within virtual communities of potential supporters.

The digital revolution is transforming message delivery in American politics.  However, the Internet and social software tools require users to surrender some control over the message, and those tools facilitate the dissemination of their opponents’ messages as well as their own.  This is a healthy phenomenon, but it does require advocates to remain alert to what is being said in cyberspace about their candidates or their issues.
The challenge for grassroots politics in America will be figuring out how to use the Internet to entice multi-tasked potential voters to linger on their message long enough to be persuaded.

Conclusion

The 2008 election has been and will continue to be exciting to watch.  For the candidates, it’s still all about defining and getting out their message, and attracting dollars and voters.  Candidates still must translate high-tech methods into good old-fashioned ground troops, contributions, and connection with the voters.  The winner in November will likely be the candidate who best melds the new technology with the old techniques of campaigning.

As an American, I'm very proud of our tradition of vigorous political debate and the opportunity we have to participate in choosing our leaders.  Thank you for allowing me to share with you a little bit about our political system and our political culture.  I welcome your questions.